MLB
Who will be MLB’s 2026 awards winners? The Globe’s predictions include a pair of Red Sox in the running for top honors.
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AL MVP: It would be easy to say Aaron Judge will win his third in a row and fourth in five years. He’s an incredible hitter. But Bobby Witt Jr. is the best all-around player in the American League and this year will be his turn.
The Globe will run staff predictions for the division winners later this week. For now, here are some predictions on individual awards and a few other categories.
The regular season starts Wednesday with the Giants hosting the Yankees on Netflix. The Red Sox get started Thursday against Terry Francona and the Reds in Cincinnati.
Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cal Raleigh, and the Sox’ Roman Anthony will round out the top five.
NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani was the unanimous winner last season and might be even more valuable this season.
Ohtani was limited to 47 innings as a pitcher last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He worked 4⅓ innings against the Giants in a Cactus League game last week, throwing 81 pitches. Four of his fastballs were between 99.0 and 99.9 miles per hour. He also threw a curveball, sinker, slider, splitter, and sweeper.
The righthander hasn’t pitched a full season since 2022 when he made 28 starts for the Angels. Even if the Dodgers are extraordinarily cautious to make sure he is ready for the postseason, Ohtani could be worth 15 bWAR this season as a hitter and pitcher.
Another MVP would be his fifth. Only Barry Bonds, with seven, has more.
AL Cy Young: Garrett Crochet skipped the World Baseball Classic because of his workload last season and to help care for his infant daughter. His spring training statistics haven’t been particularly impressive, but Crochet has been more focused on preparing himself for the season.
As good as back-to-back Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is, Crochet has been gaining ground for two years now.
NL Cy Young: Ohtani is on the record saying is goal is to win the Cy Young. But Paul Skenes looks untouchable. Skenes, who turns 24 in May, has a 1.96 ERA over 55 career starts and 386 strikeouts in 320⅔ innings.
Skenes also dominated in two WBC starts this month. Cristopher Sanchez and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were second and third last season and will contend again.
AL Rookie of the Year: Trey Yesavage will open the season on the injured list with a shoulder impingement. He’s expected to start throwing within a week.
If healthy, Yesavage is the choice considering his 3.58 ERA over 27⅔ innings in six playoff appearances for the Blue Jays last season. Otherwise shortstop Kevin McGonigle (Tigers) or catcher Carter Jensen (Royals) are good possibilities.
NL Rookie of the Year: The best rookie in the league will be shortstop Konnor Griffin whenever the Pirates decide to call him up. But will he play enough to merit consideration?
Second baseman JJ Wetherholt (Cardinals) or righthander Nolan McLean (Mets) might be better choices. The pick here is McLean, who had a 2.06 ERA in eight starts last season.
AL Manager of the Year: Cleveland’s Stephen Vogt has won twice in a row. Voter fatigue makes three in a row unlikely. So let’s go with Mark Kotsay of the Please Don’t Say Sacramento Athletics. They have improved three years in a row under adverse conditions and could be postseason contenders.
NL Manager of the Year: Milwaukee’s Pat Murphy also has won twice in a row. Miami’s Clayton McCullough could displace him if the Marlins finish over .500 for only the second time since 2010 over a full season.
On-field story of the season: How Tony Vitello fares as manager of the Giants after eight seasons as head coach at the University of Tennessee will be fascinating.
It’s something no major league team has tried. That four-time World Series winner Bruce Bochy is now with the Giants as a special advisor will help.
Off-field story of the season: The threat of another gambling scandal is hovering over baseball. Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase, a three-time All-Star, and Luis Ortiz were indicted in November on charges of rigging bets for gamblers based on the outcome of pitches they threw. Both have claimed innocence.
With 780 active major leaguers at any one time along with coaches and other people who have constant contact with players, gamblers have many avenues to seek information.
Players also have taken note how teams and the league are profiting from legalized gambling. It’s trouble waiting to happen.
One overblown story line in Red Sox spring training is the idea that Marcelo Mayer has been in Alex Cora’s doghouse because the manager hasn’t named him to the Opening Day roster yet.
The former first-round pick hit .228 in 44 major league games last season and has yet to play more than 91 games in a single season since being drafted in 2021. The last thing Mayer should be told is that he has he has spot wrapped up.
Cora isn’t being tough on him; he’s being a manager. And Mayer has shown he deserves a spot, playing good defense at second base and posting a .424 on-base percentage in the Grapefruit League through 10 games. He responded well to Cora’s expectations.
“I feel like I’ve done a good job, the way that I’ve been approaching the game, the way that I’ve been taking my [at-bats], the approach I’ve had,” Mayer said. “I feel like I’m in a really good spot to start the season.”
Given their leaky infield defense last season, Mayer’s work at second base is important. Early in camp, shortstop Trevor Story lobbied to have a steady second baseman instead of the tryout camp the Sox seemed to be running last season.
“Up the middle you got to understand your partner,” Mayer said. “You got to know where they like the ball, how fast they like the ball. Those are things you need to work on before the season starts. So I understand where, where he’s coming from with that. It’s been nice for to me to get reps at one position.”
Mayer took no offense to Cora withholding his approval, saying those decisions aren’t his to make.
“I just go out there and play as hard as they can, and wherever the chips fall, they fall,” he said. “I’m excited for the season, hopefully that’s in Cincinnati [for Opening Day on Thursday].“
A few other observations on the Red Sox:
▪ At 21, Roman Anthony already has an acute sense of who he is and what he means to the Sox.
Thursday afternoon provided a good example. Anthony and other Red Sox players returned to Fenway South from the World Baseball Classic and were together in the clubhouse for the first time in several weeks Anthony made it a point to greet Willson Contreras and Ranger Suarez with big hugs and spend some extra time at their lockers.
It was more than just a “Hey, good to see you.” It was a genuine gesture toward the Venezuelan players who beat Anthony and the United States in the WBC final.
Anthony said the best part of the WBC experience was getting to know players like Kyle Schwarber, the former Red Sox slugger and current Phillies DH, and learning how they prepared for games.
Anthony was asked if making the all-tournament team was a sign that he belonged.
“I don’t think I ever questioned that,” he said.
▪ Counting a minor league game, Johan Oviedo has 11 walks over 15⅓ innings in five spring training starts. The 28-year-old righthander has a lot of potential but lefthander Connelly Early is increasingly looking like a better option as the No. 5 starter.
It’s Oviedo, Early, and lefty Payton Tolle for one spot. The winner goes in the rotation and the other two into the Triple A rotation.
▪ Greg Weissert had three saves for Team Italy in the WBC, pitching 3⅓ innings without allowing a run. The righthander struck out Gunnar Henderson and Aaron Judge to leave a runner stranded and secure an 8-6 victory against the United States on March 10. He fanned Judge on four pitches.
“Having that experience is definitely going to help me going forward,” Weissert said.
Weissert said being around fellow righthander Adam Ottavino was particularly beneficial. Ottavino only pitched once in the tournament but the 15-year veteran out of Northeastern, who spent the 2021 season with the Red Sox, spoke to Weissert at length about his experiences.
“It was great getting to really know him and pick his brain,” Weissert said. “I’ve been telling people that was the best part, meeting different people in the game. I feel like I gained a lot being there.”
▪ Cora likes what he sees from 24-year-old outfielder Allan Castro, who finished last season with Double A Portland.
“I knew a little bit about him and now I know a lot,” Cora said. “The plays that he’s made and the throws that he’s made. That was awesome.”
Cora also believes that infielder Vinny Capra, who was signed to a minor league deal in November, “is a guy we have to pay attention to” because of his defense.
Capra has had 67 games of major league experience with the Blue Jays, Pirates, Brewers, and White Sox since 2022. He hasn’t hit (.133 in 142 plate appearances) but can play shortstop, third base, and second.
▪ It’s strange the Sox waited until the final days of camp to sign lefthander Danny Coulombe and righthander Tommy Kahnle.
It seemed obvious for weeks they needed another lefthanded setup man beyond Jovani Moran. Kahnle, who was on Detroit’s postseason roster last season, is seemingly a better bullpen option than some of the non-roster righthanders contending for a spot.
▪ The Dominican Republic and Venezuela have qualified for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles via their success in the WBC. The United States also would be in the six-team tournament as the host nation.
The other three spots are to be determined by regional tournaments.
Understanding a lot can change over time, that means you could have Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, Brayan Bello, Garrett Crochet, Garrett Whitlock, Carlos Narváez, and Ranger Suarez representing the Sox at the Games.
ABC’s ratings for The Oscars actually fell by 9 percent this year, a drop blamed on 7.4 million viewers who watched the World Baseball Classic semifinal game between the United States and the Dominican Republic on FS1.
The WBC has become a legitimate attraction and now the question is how should Major League Baseball proceed with this valuable property?
A midseason tournament akin to the NBA Cup or the NHL’s 4 Nations Face-Off is seemingly the way to go. The thought here would be to continue to hold the early rounds during spring training then play the semifinals and final as part of an extended All-Star break.
“As the game continues to evolve, we have talked about midseason tournaments in general,” commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters in Miami for the WBC final. “And certainly if we decided to get serious about this, about a midseason tournament, this would be an ideal opportunity.”
Playing the three biggest games of the WBC in July at a time when the NFL, NBA, and NHL are on hiatus would be a ratings bonanza. A midseason tournament also should solve the problem of some pitchers being unavailable or available only under certain conditions.
But would Japan, Korea, Mexico, and other nations be willing to suspend their seasons to send a national team to the United States if their team advanced? Now you’re asking a lot, maybe too much.
I asked Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who was general manager of Puerto Rico’s WBC team in 2017, if that could work.
“That’s the biggest obstacle. It’s not the WBC of big leaguers,” he said. “Unless you reduce the teams and make it only big leaguers, it’s going to be very hard to make it a week of WBC [in the middle of the season].”
One other thought on the WBC: Team USA caught a lot of unfair heat for not being as outwardly emotional about the tournament as other teams.
You can’t expect players from across a large country like the United States to bond as easily as players from the Dominican Republic or Venezuela.
Every Latin American player has faced the same challenge of leaving their country, their family, and their culture to play in the United States when they are 16 or 17. Their connection goes far deeper than a uniform.
“It felt like playing with guys who were my brothers,” Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu said.
Players from the United States get drafted, sign and hop a flight to Florida or Arizona to get started. There’s no comparison.
Team USA manager Mark DeRosa did well in assembling a talented team. But it was clunky to invite a former Navy Seal to address the team and tie the team’s identity to the armed forces. Winning a baseball tournament has nothing to do with putting your life on the line in combat.
The next Team USA would do well to try and enjoy itself more.
White Sox righthander Mike Vasil, who was competing for a job in the rotation, will miss the season after tearing an elbow ligament last Saturday while facing the Dodgers. Tommy John surgery has been scheduled. The 22-year-old Wellesley native and former Boston College High star had a 2.50 ERA as a reliever last season after being claimed off waivers from the Rays. “I think for me and all these years of being able to pitch healthy and throwing a lot of innings, it’s just something that happens in today’s game,” Vasil said. “Sometimes you can’t avoid it. To perform at a high level, sometimes it’s the price you pay to be able to push your body to the limits. I’m not happy about it, but I know I’m going to come back better than ever.” … Hitters were 1 for 40 with 27 strikeouts against Padres closer Mason Miller in his final 12 games of last season. They were then 0 for 12 with 10 strikeouts in four WBC games and 1 for 13 in his first three Cactus League games with five strikeouts. That’s 2 for 65 (.030) over 19 games with 42 strikeouts … MLB players were measured during spring training so their strike zone would be accurate for the automated ball-strike challenge system. Rays second baseman Gavin Lux, once listed at 6 feet 2 inches, proved to be 5-11 and Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman is down from 6-0 to 5-10 … New York Post columnist Mike Vaccaro’s new book, “The Bosses of the Bronx” drops on Tuesday. It examines the never-ending drama that surrounded George Steinbrenner’s tenure owning the Yankees and the stewardship of his son, Hal. Even for Red Sox fans, it’s a fun read … Happy birthday to Justin Masterson, who is 41. The righthander debuted with the Red Sox in 2008 and was 13-10 with a 4.26 ERA before he was traded to Cleveland at the 2009 trade deadline to land catcher Victor Martinez. Masterson had a 4.23 ERA over parts of six seasons for Cleveland. He returned to the Red Sox as a free agent in 2015 and was released in August. He retired following the 2017 season after two years in the minors. Masterson is now involved with charities and hosts a talk show on YouTube on topics ranging from sports to religion to mental health.
Peter Abraham can be reached at peter.abraham@globe.com. Follow him on Bluesky at peteabeglobe.bsky.social.