Where things stand with Sonics’ return as NBA season tips off

When the NBA opens next week, it’s likely to be the start of a season where there’s finally clarity around the league’s expansion plans and ultimately how Seattle falls into the mix. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has hinted for several years that expansion is coming. At one point, it seemed soon after the league’s new media rights deals were signed last summer the league would quickly turn to the expansion conversation. And the NBA still might. But Silver and the league seem to be lightly tapping the brakes. After an NBA Board of Governors meeting last month, Silver said that expansion wasn’t discussed, and that it was likely to be addressed at some point this season. That’s good news and, at the same time, frustrating news for fans who have been stuck in neutral for 16 years since the departure of the SuperSonics waiting for the league to return. It’s also more fuel for critics still bitter with what happened and continue to say good riddance to the NBA. Speaking briefly during a charity fundraiser last week benefiting the Sonics Legends Fund, Kraken principal owner Samantha Holloway seemed to follow Silver’s lead and tempered a little of the anticipation, saying there is hope to “get together for another announcement,” but that it might not be that soon. Holloway and many of the same people who brought the Kraken to the surface are expected to be involved in any expansion bid that comes from Seattle. Retired former NBA executive Rick Welts, a Seattle native, has been consulting with that group in preparations for a potential expansion bid. But there is no campaigning yet. As with the NHL expansion process with the Kraken, this group will not get out ahead of Silver and the league’s owners. With that as a backdrop, here’s a rundown of the expansion conversation and some of the issues the league is facing as the 2024-25 season is set to begin: So tell me, where do things stand? Remember that scene in “Braveheart” where William Wallace yells “hold” in his Scottish accent seemingly a dozen times before unleashing fury? That’s a pretty good comparison to where the expansion conversation stands right now. It feels on the cusp of taking off should the league be able to take care of a few factors still at play. Most notable is a pending franchise sale, and a lawsuit related to the recent media right deals, which until those issues gain clarity the NBA is going to be careful with how it proceeds — hence Silver’s measured comments last month. But if and when the NBA opens the door to the expansion process, watch out. It could move fairly quickly. If? What the hell is this ‘if’ you mention? The NBA is healthy and thriving, and expansion means money being split 32 ways rather than 30. There are owners in the league who won’t want to part with a single dime more than what they’re supposed to be getting. In other words, THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES THE LEAGUE WILL EXPAND! That said, (sorry for the all caps), even if there are some stubborn ownership groups who might be a bit reluctant on the expansion front, the chance to add the 13th largest media market in the United States with 41 years of NBA history and a fervent fan base with a certain level of disposable income is a significant enticement. New teams could also trigger additional revenue streams for the league. There are only four markets in the top 25 of the most recent Nielsen rankings that do not have an NBA team: Tampa and St. Petersburg, Florida (No. 12), Seattle (No. 13), Raleigh and Durham, North Carolina (No. 22) and St. Louis (No. 24). OK, OK, we get the ‘if.’ But should the league decide to move forward, how will this all work? If the league gives the green light to explore expansion, it should be similar to the process with the Kraken. The league would consider bids and likely form a committee within the Board of Governors to examine those proposals, who would make recommendations. The NBA hasn’t gone through an expansion since Charlotte in 2004, so it’s been a while since going through the process. How fast the timeline is, no one knows. It could be convenient that the All-Star Game next February is in San Francisco. But a rapid timeline like that probably depends on the resolution of something for sale 3,000 miles away. What is this sale and how does it influence all of this? That would be the lingering sale of the Boston Celtics and it has a ripple effect to a lot that will happen with expansion moving forward and has significant ties to Seattle. First, David Bonderman owns a stake in the Celtics, although it’s unclear what percentage he possesses. As a reminder, Bonderman is Holloway’s father. The money Bonderman and his family receive from the Celtics sale could — in theory — be used in some capacity toward an expansion fee. Speaking of expansion fee, that would seem the bigger ripple to the Celtics sale — figuratively and literally. If the league expands and owners are going to be splitting dollars 32 ways instead of 30, they’re going to want every cent they can get in expansion fees. The final number on the Celtics sale will likely be a market comparison in helping set that number. But it’s certainly going to be in the billions. Did you say billions? Yes. The last NBA franchise sale was the Dallas Mavericks, when Mark Cuban sold a majority share of the team about a year ago at a valuation of $3.5 billion. Matt Ishiba finalized purchase of the Phoenix Suns and WNBA’s Mercury at a valuation of $4 billion in early 2023. The Celtics were valued at $5.12 billion by Sportico late last year. The final price on their sale could push $6 billion. Whatever the final number, paying to join the NBA via expansion is going to require deep pockets. The $650 million paid as an expansion fee by the Kraken looks like pennies comparatively. You mentioned a lawsuit? Lawsuits and NBA in the same sentence are a little triggering here in Seattle. Understood. Sorry about that. The lawsuit in question was brought by Warner Bros. Discovery against the NBA last summer after the league agreed to its new media rights deal. WBD claimed the league breached its contract by rejecting WBD’s matching offer after the NBA agreed to a deal with Amazon worth a reported $19.8 billion over 11 years. The NBA filed a motion to dismiss in New York Supreme Court in late August. New York Supreme Court Judge Joel Cohen denied a motion to have the agreements sealed earlier this month, but no action has been taken to date. Assuming the suit eventually gets worked out, having an NBA team in the city of the headquarters for your newest media rights partner makes a lot of sense. Where’s the 32nd team going to be? The NBA loves Las Vegas, from holding the NBA Summer League there, to the first NBA Cup championship game — the league’s in-season tournament — being played there last season. Throw in that a certain current Los Angeles Lakers star has said he wants to be a team owner and own said team in Las Vegas, and it seems a no-brainer that eventually the Las Vegas LeBron’s will exist. But … (there’s always a but) … the arena situation there is unsettled. Doesn’t that sound familiar. Oak View Group, the same folks behind Climate Pledge Arena, was planning a large resort and arena complex south of the Las Vegas Strip, but that project has stalled. OVG told the Las Vegas Review-Journal last month, “We are committed to building a world-class NBA ready arena in Las Vegas and will share more information shortly.” Reports have OVG looking at land around the Rio Hotel and Casino as a possible option for an arena. OVG aren’t the only players in this Vegas table game. ESPN reported last month that former Milwaukee Bucks owner Marc Lasry could be putting together a bid. Also unknown is if any potential suitors will want to partner with the owners and operators of T-Mobile Arena — home of the Golden Knights — and take the whole arena question out of the equation. That would likely mean splitting revenues, which may make some owners and investors balk. If there is some clarity on the arena situation in Las Vegas in the coming months, their place as the other expansion option should be set. But the longer there remains uncertainty, the more the doors could remain open for places such as Mexico City, Montreal, Louisville, Kentucky, Kansas City, Missouri, or even a potential return to Vancouver, British Columbia. If the NBA opens up to expansion this season and if Seattle bids and is awarded a team, when would they start? The most optimistic belief is a franchise would need about 18 months to get up and running, which if a team was announced sometime this winter, would be enough time for the 2026-27 season. Most observers believe 2027-28 is the more likely timeline at this point.