NFL
Patriots coach Jerod Mayo has opted for the conservative approach on fourth down. Here’s why.
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bostonglobe.com
In Sunday’s loss to the Rams, though, it seemed as though Mayo is taking on a more conservative approach — even if he won’t say it.
“In my opinion, it’s a case by case, like, how the game is going, what the flow of the game is like,” Mayo said. “In the moment, I always feel like I’m making the right decision. It’s very easy to look back and say, ‘Well, I wish I would have done X, Y, and Z.’ ”
FOXBOROUGH — Patriots coach Jerod Mayo says he evaluates each fourth-down decision on a case-by-case basis, de-emphasizing the need to establish a consistent, prevailing philosophy in those situations.
On a fourth and 13 in the second quarter, with the Patriots leading, 7-0, and the ball on LA’s 37-yard line, Mayo opted to take a delay of game and punt instead of attempting a 54-yard field goal. Kicker Joey Slye struggled more than usual during warm-ups but has made three of his four attempts from 50-plus yards this season.
Then, on a fourth and 2 in the third quarter, with the Patriots trailing, 21-10, and the ball on LA’s 2-yard line, Mayo elected to kick a field goal instead of going for the touchdown. After the game, Mayo said the offense probably would have stayed on the field if the down and distance were fourth and 1. According to a fourth-down decision calculator, created by Ben Baldwin, the recommendation was to go for it. New England’s win percentage was 9 points higher with a successful conversion as opposed to a successful field goal.
Later, on a fourth and 1 in the fourth quarter, with the Patriots trailing, 28-19, and the ball on LA’s 19-yard line, the offense stayed on the field to go for it only for wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk to be flagged for a false start. With the Patriots backed up to fourth and 6, Mayo elected to send out Slye for a 42-yard field goal.
The Patriots ultimately finished the game with no fourth-down attempts.
“Every game is unique,” Mayo said after the loss. “It’s one of one. And I just felt like when I made those choices, it was the best thing to do for our football team today.”
So, was Sunday’s game an accurate reflection of Mayo’s tendencies?
The Patriots have converted nine of 13 fourth-down attempts. That percentage (69.2) ranks fifth in the NFL, behind only Buffalo (85.7), Washington (85.7), Kansas City (80.0), and Atlanta (73.7). Their 13 fourth-down attempts are tied for 14th in the league, as Cleveland has the most with 21 and the Chargers have the least with 5.
Those numbers, however, are not necessarily a measure of aggressiveness.
Three of New England’s fourth-down conversions came in garbage time of Week 3, when rookie quarterback Drake Maye made his NFL debut with the Patriots down by 21 points. The Patriots also had two successful fourth-down conversions in garbage time of Week 6, when they were down 20 points to Houston.
They also went for it in the final minute of Week 5, when they were trailing by 5 to Miami; in the final seconds of Week 8, when they were trailing by 5 to the Jets; and in the final seconds of Week 9, when they were trailing by 7 to Tennessee. Those are three obvious go-for-it situations.
In San Francisco, the Patriots went for it on fourth down three times — when they were down, 13-0, in the second quarter, 20-3, in the third, and 27-13, in the fourth — and converted once. In London against the Jaguars, they went for it once, when they were down, 25-16, with two minutes remaining.
Effectively, only one of New England’s fourth-down attempts is reflective of an aggressive approach. In Week 10, on fourth and 1 with 7:59 to go in a scoreless first quarter and the ball on Chicago’s 18-yard line, Mayo kept the offense on the field. Rhamondre Stevenson picked up 2 yards. Three plays later, Slye kicked a 30-yard field goal.
Taking a look back at New England’s eight other fourth-and-short (1 or 2 yards to go) situations, not all are fair indications of aggressiveness.
On a fourth and 2 in Week 1, with 8:50 to go in the fourth quarter, the Patriots up, 13-7, and the ball on Cincinnati’s 18-yard line, Mayo opted to kick a field goal, making it a two-possession game. Later in the fourth, on a fourth and 2 with 3:14 to go, the Patriots up, 16-10, and the ball on the 50-yard, Mayo opted to take a delay of game and punt. Both decisions were sound.
Only one of the eight sticks out as a potential missed opportunity. On fourth and 1 in overtime of Week 2, the Patriots decided to punt from their 39-yard line. Seattle scored the game-winning field goal on its ensuing drive.
A fourth down, albeit with 3 yards to go, from Week 4 also sticks out. On New England’s opening drive, with the ball on San Francisco’s 41-yard line, the Patriots tried to get the defense to jump offside but ultimately took a delay of game and punted.
As the sample size continues to build, it’ll be worth watching whether Mayo changes his stance and decides to establish an overriding philosophy when it comes to these decisions.
Last year, the Patriots ranked at the bottom of the league in fourth-down conversion percentage (30.0). Their 25 fourth-down attempts tied for 15th in the league, but the Bill Belichick-led team, according to multiple models, ranked at the bottom of the league in terms of aggressiveness. New England’s “go rate,” which measures how often teams go for it when analytics recommend they should, ranked 32nd in the league by a considerable margin.
“As I continue to evolve as a coach, as the players continue to grow and develop, we’ll see what happens,” Mayo said. “But it is a case-by-case basis.”
Nicole Yang can be reached at nicole.yang@globe.com.Follow her @nicolecyang.