As NBA playoff races heat up, we’re still thinking about that 65-game rule

Every Monday, we catch you up on the happenings in the NBA. This week, another big injury has the 65-game rule under fire. Is this enough for the league to get rid of it? Also, a lot of playoff movement could happen with just three weeks left in the regular season. We also have the extended version of the NBA Stock Report, a Monday staple in The Bounce. That’s our free NBA newsletter that you can sign up for and receive every day in your inbox. A few weeks ago, there was an online discussion about whether Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would miss the NBA’s 65-game cutoff, and whether Cade Cunningham might win MVP. That was a terrible way of thinking, because we should never end up with a major award winner by default. The thought process/conversation wasn’t necessarily the fault of the people having it. It’s a bad system that breeds such foolish premises. Interestingly, Cunningham is on the opposite end of that thought process now. He suffered a collapsed lung last week and has to sweat out whether he can even get to 65 games this season. Cunningham deserves to be both on the MVP ballot and the All-NBA First Team. He’s continued to get better and has led the Detroit Pistons to first place in the Eastern Conference and one of the best records in the NBA. However, we won’t get to vote for him in these major awards unless he rushes his way back to the court to complete the final five games he’d need to officially qualify for those honors. What are we doing here? While the policy was an effort to reassure broadcasters and viewers that players would not rest or have load management take them out of nationally televised games, it has only cheapened the NBA and ignored the real issue with the practice that the league has so poorly discussed. Load management has always been about the teams trying to protect their assets and maximize their chances for winning in the postseason. It’s rarely been a case of whether players actually want to participate in their jobs. Guys with chronic knee problems or bad injuries that shortened or even jeopardized their careers got slapped with the “load management” scarlet letter, and people ran with it because it was an easy thing to rant about. By allowing load management to become a subject of conflicting studies from era to era and a talking point, the league backed itself into a corner by needing such a policy. Or maybe we should say feeling like it needs such a policy. The league needs to get rid of the 65-game rule. We don’t need tweaks. We need abolition. The league should never set up a system that incentivizes rushing back from injury to qualify for honors and boosts in contract. Maybe the theory behind such a policy had merit, but its application after a couple of years makes for a pretty conclusive judgment: It’s garbage. There are other ways to put broadcast partners at ease. And tying this to end-of-season awards was a misunderstanding of the voting process in the first place. Players’ availability or lack thereof was always considered in awards voting. Sometimes you’d get Bill Walton winning MVP with 56 games played or Rudy Gobert getting Defensive Player of the Year with 58. But it wasn’t the norm. Availability should absolutely be a consideration, but it shouldn’t be a hard-and-fast line in the sand. Cunningham, Wemby, Jokić and SGA are definitely MVP ballot-worthy and All-NBA First Team locks, even if they only manage to get to 63 games or whatever this season. Nobody will have a problem if the NBA just treats this policy like that weird composite ball from years ago and has it go away as we pretend it never happened. In fact, it will make the NBA look stronger for believing in its product. 📈 Oklahoma City Thunder (56-15). Don’t look now, but the Thunder have won 11 straight games. It’s the second-longest winning streak of their season so far. The Thunder would have to win their next five games (at Philadelphia, at Boston and then vs. Chicago, New York and Detroit) to tie the 16-game streak they had heading into their NBA Cup semifinal. Their net rating during this current 11-win streak (plus-9.8) is only about half as dominant as their 16-game streak (plus-20.3). But the Thunder have reminded everybody of just how dominant they can be and are. Defensive excellence is fueling this current streak. Their offensive rating (18th), effective field goal percentage (22nd) and true shooting percentages (17th) are nothing to brag about. But their opponent eFG (first), opponent free-throw rate (fifth), opponent turnover rate (sixth) and defensive rebounding rate (ninth) are all thriving. This streak began when Gilgeous-Alexander returned from an extended absence due to an abdominal strain. Turns out, they’re pretty good when he plays. 📉 Orlando Magic (38-32). A week ago, we were marveling at how the Magic looked like they were finally realizing the potential everybody assumed they had entering this season. They’d won seven in a row and had a big showdown against the Atlanta Hawks last Monday. Since then, the Magic haven’t won a game. They got handled by the Hawks, shut down by OKC, fried in Charlotte and then beaten by the Los Angeles Lakers on Luke Kennard’s game-winner. Orlando could have planted itself in the top six in the Eastern Conference and instead has fallen to eighth. The problem during this four-game losing streak is that this team continues to struggle on offense. Granted, the Magic played four defenses that are currently on the upswing, but they also had a 49.5 percent effective field goal percentage in those four games. That’s just not workable. Their defense has struggled too, not keeping teams off the free-throw line or from getting second-chance points. Some of that might be effort or scheme confusion. But their defense is supposed to carry them. That’s their identity. It won’t have a shot at succeeding long-term if the offense remains this putrid. Simple but true analysis: They really need to make shots. 📈 Los Angeles Lakers (46-25). The Lakers have won nine straight games and have a lot of people believing they may have figured it all out. The last four wins have all happened on the road and against good teams. Wins over the Rockets (twice), Heat and Magic have proven they don’t just beat up on bad teams, and this streak has pushed L.A. to 19-18 on the season against .500 or better teams. The Lakers have run off seven straight victories against non-losing teams, and they’ll get a chance to push that against the Pistons (sans Cunningham) on Monday. Their offense is clicking big time: second-best eFG, fourth in free-throw rate and ninth in turnover rate. The only offensive category they’re not shining in right now is offensive rebounding, which isn’t such a priority when you’re knocking down a 58.1 percent eFG. Rebounding has actually been an issue in this streak because they’re giving up one of the higher offensive rebounding rates in the league. However, the Lakers aren’t putting teams on the free-throw line, and they’re forcing a lot of turnovers. Maybe this is all legitimate and something that translates to the postseason? 📉 Miami Heat (38-33). The Heat have dropped four straight. Maybe it’s a Florida thing. Miami’s win streak just before this skid featured many easy opponents, but you can only play who is on the schedule. Maybe it’s a little disheartening that a tougher schedule brought about four losses. They dropped games to Orlando, Charlotte, the Lakers and Houston. The good news is that only the loss to Charlotte was a blowout, and that didn’t really happen until the final quarter or so. The games against the Magic and Rockets could have gone either way, and they had a chance to take down the Lakers, too. The Heat have done a great job not turning the ball over, and they’re getting to the free-throw line. They just can’t make shots. More alarmingly, they couldn’t stop anybody from making shots, and they kept fouling teams. They gave up 60 points to Luka Dončić in one of the games. And LaMelo Ball dominated them in another game. Miami has struggled against good teams all season, and the Heat are down to 16-25 when facing non-losing teams. 📈 New York Knicks (47-25). The new hottest team in the East with six straight victories. Granted, these victories have not exactly come against the toughest schedule. The Knicks hit the tanking stretch of their schedule, and they’re taking advantage of it. They beat the Jazz, the Pacers twice, the Warriors without Steph Curry, the Nets and the Wizards. Shockingly, they barely beat the Nets, and they struggled to put away the Warriors. But wins are wins, and they all count the same in the standings. The Knicks need to take advantage of a stretch like this if they’re going to think about catching Boston in the standings (more below). Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges are struggling to make shots right now, but it hasn’t hurt them. They’ve been able to sit a guy here and there to start managing minutes and time off. Everything from here is fine-tuning things and finding a way to the No. 2 seed just in case. The Knicks are a great clutch team on both ends of the floor. Even with this easy stretch, the Knicks have one of the toughest remaining schedules. They will be tested, and they’ll have to decide what the priority is in the final weeks. But they’re back in a really good spot. 📉 Phoenix Suns (40-32). The Suns had a great opportunity to put pressure on in pursuit of the West’s top six. Then … they lost five straight games. They’re still dealing with guys in and out of the lineup, but the Suns really hit a rough spot by losing at Toronto, at Boston, at Minnesota, at San Antonio and at home to Milwaukee. The Suns managed to snap the losing streak on Sunday by blowing out Toronto at home. However, they’ve pretty much locked themselves into the Play-In Tournament. The Suns are now four games behind Minnesota with 10 to play. It would take a massive cratering by one team and a surge by the Suns to get into the top six. That’s not happening. They have to find a way to generate more consistent offense. I don’t care how good a season Dillon Brooks had; your offense can’t be based on whether or not he’s in the lineup. They’ve been such a fun story this season, but Phoenix needs to get it together to avoid it fizzling out. 📈 Tanking. Folks, tanking is having a great month or so. The Wizards and Pacers have both lost 16 straight games. At the same time! The Wizards are within a game of the Pacers, but Indiana will not budge. The Wizards and Pacers are both trying to protect their picks. If the Pacers’ pick falls between fifth and ninth, it goes to the LA Clippers because of the Ivica Zubac trade. By the way, they’ve shut down Zubac after 118 minutes on the court with a rib injury. The Wizards are having their own injury woes with Anthony Davis and Trae Young looking like they might not play again this season. It’s shocking! The Wizards can’t have their pick fall beyond the top eight, or it goes to the Knicks. They’ve pretty much all but guaranteed they’ll keep that pick this summer. We have three weeks left in the season, and a lot can change in the standings. Let’s take a look at the upcoming week and what might happen. In the last couple of weeks of doing this, we’ve wondered when the Bucks might tap out. It looks like that tapping happened, so we won’t peruse their schedule here: • Boston (47-24): vs. Thunder, vs. Hawks, at Hornets • New York (47-25): vs. Pelicans, at Hornets, at Thunder • Cleveland (44-27): vs. Magic, vs. Heat, vs. Heat Massive week for the Knicks and Celtics as they battle for second in the East with just a half-game separating them. The Celtics have three tough opponents. No games to boost the record. The Knicks get the Pelicans to even things up with Boston, but then they’ll also face Charlotte and OKC. Those two teams will have a good say in how things look heading into the following week. Cleveland is still too far back to really make them feel nervous, but the Cavs also get Miami and Orlando all week as they’ve been struggling to win. • Toronto (39-31): at Jazz, at Clippers, vs. Pelicans, vs. Magic • Atlanta (39-32): vs. Grizzlies, at Pistons, at Celtics, vs. Kings • Philadelphia (39-32): vs. Thunder, vs. Bulls, at Hornets • Orlando (38-32): vs. Pacers, at Cavs, vs. Kings, at Raptors • Miami (38-33): vs. Spurs, at Cavs, at Cavs, at Pacers • Charlotte (37-34): vs. Kings, vs. Knicks, vs. Sixers, vs. Celtics Only 2 1/2 games separate fifth and 10th in the East, so all of these upcoming games are super important. The Raptors do have a bit of an easy go, depending on whether the Magic get back on track. The Hawks get two very favorable games with the Pistons and Celtics sandwiched in between them. Philadelphia is just a half-game from fifth, but the Sixers get the Hornets and Spurs. Miami and Charlotte really want to move up, but their schedules do not make that an easy task. Ultimately, we’re going to have a battle royal with these six teams the rest of the campaign. • Oklahoma City (56-15): at Sixers, at Celtics, vs. Bulls, vs. Knicks • San Antonio (53-18): at Heat, at Grizzlies, at Bucks The Thunder have a decently comfortable three-game lead over the Spurs for the No. 1 seed in the West. But if there is going to be some movement, it would be because of the Spurs’ schedule versus the Thunder’s schedule this week. OKC has a very tough slate outside of the Bulls game. The Spurs have an easy schedule outside of maybe the Heat game. Of course, any movement is contingent on the Thunder actually losing a game. • Lakers (46-25): at Pistons, at Pacers, vs. Nets • Houston (43-27): at Bulls, at Wolves, at Grizzlies, at Pelicans • Denver (44-28): at Suns, vs. Mavs, vs. Jazz, vs. Warriors Odd week with the Wolves and Suns both playing just two games, and the Wolves have two very difficult opponents (even with Cunningham sidelined). Those are the types of defensive squads that can give them fits, especially when they’re without Anthony Edwards. The Lakers have a real chance to push this win streak to 12 games and keep growing their lead for the No. 3 seed. Houston has to put together a minimum of a 3-1 week with this schedule, but its focus hasn’t been the best. Denver could easily go 4-0 and find itself in the driver’s seat for the fourth seed if Houston stumbles at all. The Suns have been playing terribly and don’t get a chance to really move closer to leapfrogging out of the Play-In. • Clippers (35-36): vs. Bucks, vs. Raptors, at Pacers, at Bucks • Portland (35-37): vs. Nets, vs. Bucks, vs. Mavs, vs. Wizards • Golden State (33-38): at Mavs, vs. Nets, vs. Wizards, at Nuggets The Blazers are just a half-game away from moving up to eighth in the West. That would give them an extra shot at making the playoffs via the Play-In. And they have the perfect schedule this week to keep moving. In fact, there’s no excuse for them not to rise above .500 this week. The Clippers have a fairly easy schedule, too, especially now that Milwaukee isn’t looking to try to win much. The Warriors also get a few tanking teams, but Denver is looming at the end of the week.