Inside Heat’s 6 1/2 year whale drought: What’s known; what worked, what didn’t

Some NBA teams go decades without reeling in a star via free agency or trade. The Heat has now entered year seven of its whale drought, and for some fans -- whether you’re living on Star Island or Doral -- the star search feels interminable. In a recent discussion about this, an associate of Heat president Pat Riley politely asked for some perspective, noting that nobody has landed more stars (outside of the draft process) over 30 years than Riley – from Alonzo Mourning to Tim Hardaway to Lamar Odom to Shaquille O’Neal to LeBron James to Chris Bosh to Jimmy Butler. Nevertheless, star-hungry Heat fans are being subtly reminded of the whale dry spell over this ongoing difficult schedule stretch, as they watch a parade of stars who relocated elsewhere - Luka Doncic last Thursday, Houston’s Kevin Durant on Saturday night, Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell twice next week. Doncic, who famously was never made available to any team in the league except the Lakers when the Mavericks decided to trade him, scored 60 in a Lakers’ win at Miami on Thursday. Six players who were named to the NBA’s 75th anniversary team in 2022 were traded a combined 12 times since the start of the decade and since Butler was the last whale reeled in by Miami in July 2019. Several current or former All Stars not on that top 75 team also have been dealt since – Doncic, Mitchell, Kyrie Irving, Beal, Trae Young, Jaren Jackson Jr. and others. And that doesn’t even include Heat conversations involving Giannis Antetokounmpo (Miami will try again this summer) and Ja Morant (the Heat decided against pursuing after an initial discussion with Memphis in January). With the benefit of time and hindsight, here’s a look at those all-time greats and whether the Heat should celebrate or lament not landing any of them this decade: ▪ Durant (12th on the NBA’s 75th anniversary team): There were two pursuits since 2020, after the famous recruitment in the Hamptons in 2016. Miami finished second both times over the past four years, though the Heat essentially walked away last summer by not granting the Suns’ wishes. Miami’s offer to Brooklyn in 2022 -- reported at the time to include Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and picks -- wasn’t nearly enough. Its offer last June finished a distant second to Houston’s. Two sources said the only deal that Phoenix made clear it likely would take from Miami would have included Kel’el Ware, first-round draft inventory, another young player and a cap facilitating contract. Should the Heat have given up Ware and the pick that became Kasparas Jakucionis (and more) for a 36-year-old Hall of Famer who entered Saturday night’s Heat game averaging 25.7 points on 51.7 percent shooting? A case could be made, but would it have elevated Miami to the same level as Detroit, Boston, the Knicks and Cleveland? Perhaps, if the Heat knew it was also getting Norman Powell. But Miami didn’t know that at the time Durant was traded. Per a Suns source, the Heat’s final offer included Andrew Wiggins, Terry Rozier, Haywood Highsmith and Jaime Jaquez Jr., and the pick that became Jakucionis. Phoenix wasn’t interested in that. Miami never offered Nikola Jovic, but even if it had, the Suns never indicated they definitely would accept Jovic, Wiggins, Rozier, Highsmith, Jaquez and the 20th overall pick for Durant, Cody Martin and another piece. After talking with both teams, Phoenix unanimously preferred Houston’s offer (Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the 10th overall pick and five second-rounders). Conversely, there wasn’t unanimity among the handful of Heat decision makers about how aggressively to pursue Durant. (CEO Nick Arison has final say on personnel matters but listens to his circle of trust and often defers to Riley.) The benefit of hindsight: Ultimately, offering Ware for Durant would have given the Heat a better chance to play well into May this year, but a Finals trip would have remained improbable. It also would have removed the Heat’s best asset to try again to land Antetokounmpo or a star younger than Durant. Whether the Heat can flip Ware for something younger, and better, will determine whether passing on K.D. was prescient. ▪ No. 29 Chris Paul: He was traded twice this decade but Miami didn’t pursue aggressively after a Big Three era inquiry that was complicated, according to Wade, by the fact that both players wanted to keep the No. 3. The benefit of hindsight: Would Paul, instead of Kyle Lowry, have been the missing piece on the Butler teams that made two Finals? It’s difficult to say at that advanced stage of Paul’s career; he was awful in a blowout Game 7 loss to eighth-seeded Dallas in 2022. ▪ No. 50 James Harden: Miami pursued him aggressively in October and November 2020 before pulling out of discussions that December. The Heat reportedly was willing to include several or all among Herro, Robinson, Precious Achiuwa, Kendrick Nunn, one available first round pick and pick swaps. But Houston wanted more far more (well beyond the draft inventory that the Heat owned) and ultimately snagged four first-round picks and swaps from Brooklyn. By that point, Miami was off the Harden train and largely bystanders in subsequent deals that sent him to Philadelphia, the Clippers and now Cleveland, which acquired him last month for Darius Garland. The benefit of hindsight: I’m not sure there’s anything more Miami could have done to acquire him in 2020 because of lack of sufficient draft inventory. A strong case could be made to have kept trying. But if Miami had offered Herro to the Clippers in February, it’s not only highly questionable if the Clippers would have accepted Herro over Garland, but also questionable if Harden would have catapulted Miami past Boston and the Knicks. ▪ No. 68 Russell Westbrook: The Heat pursued him in 2019, a week after landing Butler, and discussed a package with Oklahoma City that included Goran Dragic, Justice Winslow and cap facilitating contracts such as James Johnson’s. But Adebayo and Herro reportedly were off limits. OKC extracted more from Houston – Paul, two firsts and two pick swaps. The benefit of hindsight: A case could have been made to offer Herro (who had just been drafted) in 2019, but it’s telling that Westbrook wasn’t a great fit in Houston, Washington or the Lakers. Miami seemingly lost interest in Westbrook in recent years; one person who coached Westbrook told close friends that he cautioned the Heat against acquiring him, according to someone with direct knowledge. ▪ No. 71 Anthony Davis: Miami wasn’t involved when the Lakers traded him to Doncic or when Washington acquired him before the trade deadline. The benefit of hindsight: It was best for Miami to avoid because of the injury history. ▪ No. 75 Damian Lillard: The Heat was so cautiously optimistic about landing Lillard in the summer of 2023 that it bypassed pursuing a few more modest moves in June. That hope was quickly dashed when Blazers GM Joe Cronin made clear early on that Adebayo was essentially the only Heat asset that appealed to him, and stopped communicating with the Heat soon after. The benefit of hindsight: Perhaps the Heat - which didn’t want to empty its full cupboard for Lillard - could have been more aggressive and kept calling again and again. But Cronin likely wouldn’t have sent him here regardless. So it’s all moot. The shame is that if Lillard had been granted his wish to play here, it could have appreciably raised Heat title hopes in 2023-24, but only if Butler hadn’t been injured before Miami’s first-round loss in Boston that postseason. As for the players not on that top-70 team: We’re told it would have taken Adebayo to convince Utah executive Danny Ainge to trade Mitchell to the Heat in the summer of 2022. Per ESPN, the Heat called Brooklyn in an attempt to acquire Kyrie Irving in February 2023, but Miami offered nothing attractive enough to beat out Dallas’ package of Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, an unprotected 2029 first-round draft pick and two future second-round picks (2027 and 2029). Miami made no offer for Trae Young or Morant (not viewed as fits) or for Bradley Beal (because of his no-trade clause; he turned into a contract albatross to the Suns after they acquired him from Washington). The benefit of hindsight: Miami was smart to avoid Beal. It’s too soon to know on Morant. Irving was a sensitive case because of his antisemitic remarks that came to light three months earlier. As for Mitchell/Adebayo, it’s difficult to say who would have led Miami to greater heights. Neither has been the leading man on a Finals team, though Adebayo helped Butler get to two Finals. Once this season ends, part of the Heat’s focus - beyond the draft - is expected to turn back to Antetokounmpo, who is now at odds with Milwaukee because he wants to play and the Bucks want to keep him out to increase their lottery odds and protect him as a potential trade asset. The Heat’s chances of acquiring him this summer seemingly would be far greater if he formally asks for a trade (which he has declined to do) and conveys to teams that he would commit longterm to only a couple of teams - including Miami. He was effusive about Adebayo and the Heat after the Bucks’ visit to Miami earlier this month: “Obviously, whenever I play against Bam, it’s always an act of motivation. I think he’s one of the best players in the NBA, one of the best two-way players in the NBA, one of the best four, five men in the league… You know [Miami is] going to play tough, you know they’re not going to stop playing; that’s the Miami Heat culture.” But does Antetokounmpo actually have it in him to push the Bucks to trade him here? One misconception during this whale drought is that the Heat struck out repeatedly. That’s not the case. Miami opted not to pursue aggressively, or at all, in 8 of the 12 aforementioned instances that those top 75 team players were traded this decade. A case could have been made to offer more for Irving or relinquish Ware for Durant. With Lillard and Irving, there will always be the question of what could have been if paired with Butler. But holding onto all its young assets could prove fruitful for the Heat if the whale search ends with Antetokounmpo or another in-his-prime star this summer. ▪ From a TV standpoint, Miami’s home game at 7 p.m. Monday against the Spurs will be available only on Peacock and NBC Sports Network.