Hitting Craftsman Luis Arraez Is One Of Most Polarizing MLB Players

The Padres’ Luis Arraez is a lot of things. He has arguably the best bat-to-ball skills in baseball today. He never strikes out. He’s won three consecutive batting titles. There are those who believe that he is the second coming of Tony Gwynn or Rod Carew as a result. He has also been traded multiple times in the recent past, going from the Twins to the Marlins to the Padres, all since the beginning of the 2023 season. He’s rumored to be on the move again, with the Yankees allegedly having interest in him to fill their hole at 2B. He’s been a below average defender at 2B and 1B, and has been drifting in the wrong direction along the defensive spectrum over the years. He has below average speed and isn’t a particularly good baserunner. Basically, he’s a bat only guy with little to no power. But the one thing he does well, he does incredibly well. So you can look at this one of two ways - you can question why teams keep moving on from him, or explore why teams continue to be interested in acquiring him. Before either question can be weighed we have to drill down a bit and see why he is the type of hitter he is. First and foremost, the sheer volume of contact he makes is a huge positive. In 2021, when his K rate was 10.0%, it was already over two full standard deviations lower than league average, and it’s just kept plummeting from there. In 2024, his K rate was an infinitesimal 4.3%. This in a sport where league average K rates have climbed into the low twenties. Just putting the bat on the ball in that type of offensive environment is a huge advantage. Arraez has also consistently posted extremely high line drive rates. His liner rate has been over two standard deviations above league average in four of his six MLB seasons (including the last three), and over one above in the other two. Right there, before we discuss any other aspect of his offensive game, we have a .300 hitter. With a K rate so low and a liner rate so high, it’s almost impossible for a hitter not to bat .300. Throw his minuscule pop up rates into the mix (over one full standard deviation below league average in all of his MLB seasons) and his batting average profile gets even better. So you’re thinking, he’s an offensive stud, right? Not so fast. His plunging walk rate has become a problem. As recently as 2021-22, his walk rate hovered in the league average range, at 9.0% and 8.3% those two seasons. It’s plummeted to 4.3% and 3.6% the last two seasons. His actual 2023 numbers held up fine thanks to a big K rate drop, a silly 28.5% liner rate and some good batted ball luck. But in 2024 the bill came due. According to my batted ball-based metrics, he was actually a below league average hitter last season, with a 92 “Tru” Production+ mark. The Gwynns and the Carews had at least a modicum of power, and early in their respective careers both had exceptional speed. When Arraez hits the ball on the ground he doesn’t accumulate many leg hits, but the real problem is when he hits the ball in the air. The sheer volume of liners Arraez hits makes it difficult to hit an average or higher number of fly balls or liners. His ratio of flies to grounders leans a bit to the grounder side, but not by all that much. His fly ball rate tends to be in the low end of the average range to slightly over a half standard deviation below league average. And he gets absolutely nothing out of all of those fly balls. His 2024 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score was a nightmarish 24, tied for worst with Ildemaro Vargas among the 135 NL players with the most balls put in play. That’s behind such luminaries as Nico Hoerner, Xavier Edwards, Brice Turang, Geraldo Perdomo, Santiago Espinal, Sal Frelick, Kevin Newman and Nick Fortes, who were all at 36 or below in ascending order. His career high Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score was 47 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. His other marks were 25 in 2019, 32 in 2021, 39 in 2022 and 31 in 2023. His fly balls tend to be outs, and he hits enough of them to make a real difference. Of the players who posted a worse 2021 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score (there were eight others) only Espinal and Nicky Lopez remain in more than bit MLB roles. Only Steven Kwan remains among the six worse than him 2022. Only Perdomo, TJ Friedl and Miguel Rojas are the only three remaining among the five worse than him as recently as 2023. Only Yuli Gurriel’s 23 2023 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score was lower than Arraez’ 2024 mark among all of his career league-mates. So on the one hand you have this incredible bat-to-ball skill that arguably stands alone among currently major leaguers, but it’s offset to a great extent by an utter lack of fly ball authority that is often fatal to MLB careers. And that’s before you get to his speed and defense limitations. Oh, and salary arbitration likes high batting averages - he made $10.6 million last season and is due for a hefty raise in his last arb season before reaching free agency in 2026. So, flip the question.......why would anyone want him? Well, in an already solid batting order the addition of a high contact, high average bat lengthens the lineup and offers a massive secret hit-and-run weapon. I never could understand why the Padres batted him leadoff. Bat Arraez behind a fast guy in the #2 hole and go off to the races. A team with an ordinary DH but an otherwise strong lineup could actually find Arraez to be an upgrade. I’m not keen on placing him at 1B, because of what I call the Cronenworth Effect. The bat just doesn’t play there. But the Yankees having interest in him to play second? I get it. They have a really good defensive shortstop in Anthony Volpe who could hide some of Arraez’ limitations. Offensively, they lack a pure leadoff hitter, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. (who would likely play 3B in Arraez’ presence) is quite fast and might wind up in that role. Arraez could do some hit-and-run damage hitting behind him. And yeah, the Yankees can afford his likely-to-be-pricey salary. So Arraez is not a superstar, but he’s not worthless, either. He’s always available for trade because the arbitration system values his profile more than it should, and because his hit tool stands alone, without the power/speed/defense needed to flesh out an All Star package. There’s a place for him, but don’t be surprised when he doesn’t command a king’s ransom in free agency next winter.