Dylan Holloway’s ceiling? An NHL scout’s evaluation, player comp for Blues’ offer-sheet pickup

ST. LOUIS — Through his first three games with the St. Louis Blues, Dylan Holloway ranks near the top of the NHL in a couple of speed categories. He’s in the 97th percentile in skating bursts of 18 to 20 miles per hour and the 93rd percentile in bursts 20 to 22 mph, per the league’s player-tracking data. That’s no surprise to those who have watched Holloway’s first few seasons in the NHL, but it’s still hard for the 23-year-old forward to fathom. “Yeah, because growing up I was never a fast player,” he said. “I was always a smooth skater, like I had a good stride, but I wasn’t very fast. When you’re growing, you’re still trying to work on your form as a kid. It wasn’t until my second year in junior hockey where it kind of clicked and I was able to beat guys one-on-one. “I think it’s just about staying low and striding in a fluid motion, as opposed to stride, bring it back, stride again. The more you practice it, the more comfortable you get doing it, and that’s how it clicked. Now I’m in the pros and everybody is fast, so it’s nice to get labeled as a fast guy.” That label was tantalizing for NHL teams debating drafting Holloway in 2020, especially the Edmonton Oilers, who took him No. 14 overall. He showed some flashes in 89 games with the Oilers, posting nine goals and 18 points. But a few unfortunate injuries, along with the fact that he was on a roster with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, made it next to impossible to climb the lineup in his three seasons in Alberta. But now in St. Louis after signing a two-year, $4.58 million offer sheet this summer, Holloway is looking forward to a new opportunity. Just as he’s been labeled a fast player early in his career, he’s been described as a third-line forward who can play physically and help on the forecheck. But he’s hoping to prove he’s got a higher ceiling than that. “I think coming here, I’ll get more opportunity than had I done that in Edmonton just because Edmonton has got all that star power up front,” Holloway said. “Not that the guys here aren’t good players; they’re really good players. You kind of accept it, and honestly, you just try and play a role. The team is so good and we went on such a good run that I just wanted to be part of it. But I have the potential to be a top player and that’s my goal. “I’ll be getting a little more opportunity here, and hopefully I’m able to showcase my abilities. I don’t think people realize that I’m still a young player. This is my third year in the league and I’m still doing everything I can to work my way up and become the player I want to become. It’s definitely a goal of mine to push for a spot in the top six, and hopefully I’m able to get some special-teams minutes and produce and build my stock that way.” The Blues will play their home opener Tuesday night against the Minnesota Wild, and it’ll be fans’ first look at Holloway and Philip Broberg in the regular season at Enterprise Center. Broberg was also signed away from Edmonton this summer via an offer sheet and will make his home debut. But while there’s more certainty about the potential of the 6-foot-4, 212-pound left-shot defenseman, who has backed up that belief with his play early in the season, there’s honest curiosity about Holloway. “I think we’ve got to take a step back because he’s new to the organization,” Blues coach Drew Bannister said. “He’s played really well, but I don’t think we’re at that point of making decisions on what his ceiling is, what his basement is, or where he fits in the lineup. We don’t want to force him into a position like any young player — we’re still talking about a young player — where we put him into a position to fail. So we want him to be comfortable, we want him to start having success, and then we’ll get into that if we have to, moving through the course of the season.” Fair enough, but during a season-opening road trip through Seattle, San Jose and Vegas, in which the Blues went 2-1 with two come-from-behind wins, the top-line role and special-teams ice time Holloway had been craving finally came. He started Game 1 in Seattle on left wing with Robert Thomas and Jake Neighbours, and he’s on the second power-play unit. On the scoresheet, Holloway has just one point — a secondary assist on Broberg’s goal in Seattle — but in 40 minutes of five-on-five ice time, he has an expected goal share of 65.01 percent, per Natural Stat Trick, which ranks third on the team behind Thomas (69.6 percent) and Neighbours (66.33 percent). “The first game in Seattle is the second-most I’ve ever played in the NHL, so I was pretty happy,” said Holloway, who logged 16:01 against the Kraken. “Thomas is a top player in the league, so I was just trying to get him the puck. And Neighbours is super-good down low. For myself, I didn’t think that I was unbelievable. I definitely have more and expect more of myself. I’m looking to have a good game here against Minnesota in our home opener.” The Blues shuffled their line combinations against the Vegas Golden Knights on Friday, and Holloway was dropped to third-line center. With Brandon Saad returning from paternity leave Tuesday, Holloway is expected to remain on the third line but switch to the wing alongside center Brayden Schenn and winger Mathieu Joseph. The new spot in the lineup is more a byproduct of the team’s depth up front than Holloway’s early-season performance. “I thought he handled it really well,” Bannister said. “There were some good spurts of hockey there, but he seemed to look more comfortable when we put him at center. He’ll probably play more wing right now with Schenner playing on that line, but I thought he played really good. The speed factor, compete level, getting on the forecheck, physical — there’s a lot of good things to his game, and that third line is going to be a real good line for us right now.” The Athletic reached out to an NHL scout to get input on Holloway’s brief time in the league as well as a current projection for his future. The scout was granted anonymity because of rules that prohibit scouts from speaking publicly about another team’s player. The scout sees Holloway as a good pickup with legitimate talent. “The opportunity in St. Louis for him is far better than what he would’ve gotten this year in Edmonton,” the scout said. “The reason why they’re a Stanley Cup-contending team is because there’s no holes in the team. But he’s a very exceptional skater, he’s got a big motor, his effort is very consistent shift to shift throughout the game. The issue Dylan had in Edmonton … was just trying to figure out what kind of player he’s going to be. “I think the ceiling on the player — he’s supernaturally gifted, but the concern is always the hockey sense and the ability to process the NHL game at the pace they can play at physically. I personally don’t see him higher than a third-line player just for that hockey IQ and processing ability. But as he matures, maybe that helps slow the game down, he make less errors and he can be a top-six player.” The scout said that Holloway had a penchant for certain mistakes while he was with the Oilers. “It was managing the puck leaving the D-zone that got him in trouble,” the scout said. “He was trying to force too many passes through coverage, so just managing the puck was his bugaboo. He would make an error and lose the coach’s trust. Like I said, it was being on a team that has aspirations of going far in the playoffs — the margin for error is so small, especially for the depth players.” A few freak injuries also played a role in Holloway taking time to establish himself. In his second-to-last game at the University of Wisconsin in 2021, he fractured his wrist, which required two surgeries — the initial one and an additional one when Edmonton doctors determined that it wasn’t healing properly. In 2022-23, he separated his shoulder and missed time, and last season he fractured his kneecap. “He’s had a weird injury history since being drafted,” the scout said. “He’s been starting and stopping for three or four years straight now, so his development has been stalled. Thinking back four years ago, it’s hard to imagine that today he’s just finally getting his everyday NHL status. It’s been a hard road for him. I have lots of respect for the kid because there’s been a ton of adversity that he’s had to deal with.” The NHL player who’s the best comparable to Holloway, according to the scout, is the Calgary Flames’ Blake Coleman. He’s a middle-six forward who has 135 goals and 252 points in 545 games with the Flames, New Jersey Devils and Tampa Bay Lightning, with whom he won two Stanley Cup championships. “Those guys are so valuable,” the scout said. “Holloway signed that contract (with the Blues) that’s a little higher than what he’s worth today, but ultimately, if you can have those third-line players that are under $3 million scoring 15 goals a year and playing those tough situations, they’re so valuable.” Overall, the scout believes Holloway’s signing was a smart move by Blues GM Doug Armstrong, who gave the Oilers a third-round pick as compensation, in addition to other minor assets in the final deal. “I don’t know what the percentage, but for a third-rounder to play 100 games in the NHL, it’s like an eight-percent chance,” the scout said. “If you can bring in a player like Holloway, who looks like he should be an eight-year NHLer in some capacity, that’s definitely worth it.” Holloway’s teammates — Broberg and Neighbours, who knew him growing up in Calgary — can’t argue with that and they see an even brighter future. “‘Holls’ is great,” Broberg said. “He has a very good work ethic. He takes cares of himself off the ice and it shows. His hard work and dedication will take him very far. It will take him to the next level, for sure. He’s been looking very good so far, so I’m very excited to see what he can do this year.” “He’s going to get an opportunity to play, and in some different situations, and with that experience he’s only going to grow,” Neighbours added. “His fundamentals, in terms of skating, shooting and handling the puck, are pretty elite. He’s got the talent; it’s just about putting the pieces together.” As he does that, Holloway is happy to be one of the Blues’ new pieces and do his part in helping turn around the organization. “We’ve got a really young core group of guys, and it’s a pretty tight group,” he said. “I’m meeting new guys and they’re very welcoming, and they’re great players, too. As the years go on and guys get more experience, I think the future is only up.”