Dolphins forced to play Moneyball after wasting salary cap dollars like no team in NFL history

The 2026 Dolphins are testing that theory. They aren’t in just a “bit of a strain,” as Sullivan put it — they are historically wasteful this year as they blow up the Mike McDaniel / Chris Grier /Tagovailoa era and move on to Jeff Hafley , Sullivan and Willis. “Obviously, it’s no secret that we’re in a bit of a strain salary cap wise,” Sullivan said. “I think you can always do what you want to do within the salary cap.” Last month, new Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan was asked if his team could release Tua Tagovailoa and still fit Malik Willis in under the salary cap. As of Friday, $182 million of the Dolphins’ salary cap dollars, or nearly 60 percent of their $308 million salary cap, is tied up in dead cap money for players no longer with the team. The Dolphins’ ledger includes a $55 million cap charge for Tagovailoa, who was released and signed with the Falcons. It also includes about $100 million combined for Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jalen Ramsey, Bradley Chubb, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. No team in NFL history has used even 50 percent of its cap on dead money — the Dolphins have raced past that by 10 percent, and it’s still only March. The moves have left the Dolphins with a little more than $100 million in cap dollars to build out a football team (in the offseason, only the top 51 out of 90 players on the team count against the salary cap). Which means the Dolphins are playing “Moneyball” in 2026 like no team in NFL history: ⋅ Of the 24 free agents they have signed through Thursday, 21 will make the veteran’s minimum salary. ⋅ A total of 43 of their 70 players are signed for the minimum. The next-highest team has 31 such players, and league average is 23. ⋅ Only 10 of the Dolphins’ 70 players have a salary cap number of $2 million or greater. “Definitely never seen anything to this extent,” said salary cap expert Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com. “Usually, teams with new GMs try to work around their cap situations, but Miami really just decided to go blow it up and let the chips fall where they may.” The Dolphins are giving off a tanking vibe in 2026, much like they did in 2019 when they tore the roster down under then-first-year coach Brian Flores and began the season 0-7. But the Dolphins did make one move this offseason to suggest they still want to feign competitiveness in 2026, signing Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million deal, with $45 million fully guaranteed over the first two years. Willis, who spent the last two seasons in Green Bay with Sullivan and Hafley, accounts for three quarters of the Dolphins’ free agency spending this offseason. A four-year backup who is getting his chance to lead a team, Willis spoke to Miami reporters before the Dolphins traded Waddle to the Broncos last week, but seems to understand the situation he is entering. “Whatever role, whatever leadership, whatever it is, they brought me in as a piece of the puzzle that they want to put here, and I’m grateful and honored to be a part of that,” he said. The Willis signing does appear to go against the Dolphins’ implied goal of going cheap. But it also makes a statement that Hafley and Sullivan aren’t content to tank. While the Dolphins won’t compete for a Super Bowl in 2026, there is a plan. They are clearing out the roster, taking most of their salary cap lumps now, and trying to develop players and an identity for the future. And with so many players on minimum contracts, the Dolphins are not locked into much for 2027. “We’re in a position where we need to get back into a healthy state within our salary cap,” Sullivan said. “We’ve got to build this thing out, but we have to build it out so that it’s sustainable over time. You can’t do that overnight.” The Dolphins signed a bunch of hungry veterans fighting to prolong their careers, like former Cowboys receiver Jalen Tolbert, former Rams receiver Tutu Atwell, former Ravens edge rusher David Ojabo, and former Patriots cornerback Alex Austin and pass rusher Joshua Uche. The Dolphins also have 11 draft picks this year after trading Waddle, including pick Nos. 11, 30, 43, and four in the third round. Landing No. 30 overall plus a third-rounder from the Broncos, while offloading Waddle’s entire 2026 salary ($17.2 million), was a big win for Sullivan. And if there’s a coach who understands how to lead and motivate a shorthanded team, it’s Hafley, who previously led Boston College to a bowl-eligible season in three out of four years (2020-23). Hafley said he’s not daunted by the challenge ahead. “Some could look at it in certain ways; I look at it as really exciting,” he said. “I’m competitive. I want to win in everything we do, so I’m not just going to go in and say it’s a success because we played hard. I want to win, but it will be the start of the process.” Here are seven noteworthy items regarding moves around the league: ⋅ The Vikings’ quarterback room got a lot more interesting Friday when they re-signed Carson Wentz a week after adding Kyler Murray. The Vikings have said they want to provide competition for J.J. McCarthy, now entering his third year, but signing a veteran like Wentz on top of Murray makes it look like they have soured on McCarthy, the 10th overall pick in 2023. McCarthy might need a change of scenery. ⋅ Whew, did the Colts pay receiver Alec Pierce, one of the rare free agents to get guarantees into a third contract year. Pierce gets $30 million cash in 2026, all fully guaranteed, another $30 million in 2027, all fully guaranteed, and $27 million in 2028, with $14 million of it guaranteed a year ahead of time. This for a receiver whose career highs are 47 catches and 1,003 yards. ⋅ The 49ers didn’t have enough weapons for Brock Purdy last year, yet their solution is to add a couple of aging veterans? They signed Mike Evans, who will be 33 in August and is coming off an injury-plagued season, to a three-year deal that is really just a one-year commitment for $14.3 million. And they added former Texans receiver Christian Kirk, 29, who had just 239 yards in 13 games last season. Finding another receiver in the draft seems like a priority. ⋅ Buccaneers GM Jason Licht told the Tampa Bay Times that his team actually offered Evans “a significantly higher offer, and that was just the first offer.” Evans said he wanted another challenge, and likely saw signs of his role being reduced in Tampa. ⋅ The hapless Jets should be going young and building a foundation, but acquired five players age 30 or over in free agency, including defensive tackle David Onyemata (33), quarterback Geno Smith (35) and linebacker Demario Davis (37). They’re sacrificing player development for a couple of cheap wins. ⋅ A year after finishing 27th in points allowed and last in yards, the Commanders signed five defensive starters in free agency — edge rushers Odafe Oweh and K’Lavon Chaisson, linebacker Leo Chenal, cornerback Amik Robertson, and safety Nick Cross. They also added two rotational pieces in edge rusher Charles Omenihu and defensive tackle Tim Settle. ⋅ Stefon Diggs remains unsigned, but there are plenty of landing spots. Teams needing a receiver that could be Super Bowl competitors include the Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles (after they trade A.J. Brown), Chargers, 49ers, Commanders, Vikings, and Colts. The Jets, Titans, Falcons, and Saints also need receivers. Last week saw a few significant developments on the labor and management side of the NFL: ⋅ First was the NFL Players Association electing former nine-year center J.C. Tretter as its new executive director. Previously the NFLPA president from 2020-24, Tretter succeeds David White, who was interim executive director since last July after Lloyd Howell resigned amid controversy. Howell led the union for two years following the 14-year tenure of DeMaurice Smith. Tretter is the first former player to lead the NFLPA since Gene Upshaw died in 2008. Tretter’s appointment wasn’t unanimously celebrated, as he was part of union leadership that covered up Howell’s background check and kept hidden an important arbitration decision that proved collusion regarding Lamar Jackson. Tretter resigned from an executive position last July, yet re-emerged eight months later with the head job. With Tretter now in place, expect the owners to ramp up their desire for an 18-game schedule. ⋅ Next came an ESPN report that the league is bracing for the possibility of using replacement officials again this fall, with the management council in a stalemate with the NFL Referees Association about a new collective bargaining agreement. The NFL reportedly has identified 150 officials from small colleges to work games if the sides cannot solve their differences, with the league claiming the NFLRA is resistant to a more merit-based approach. In addition to threatening to use replacements, as the league did to start the 2012 season, the NFL would also turn to a more centralized officiating system with instant replay officials making calls from New York. The message to the NFLRA: Agree to our terms or we’ll start phasing you out. ⋅ Meanwhile, the owners meetings next week in Phoenix might not be so hot. No team made any rule proposals this year, with the Rams ultimately withdrawing their two proposals relating to the crazy two-point conversion in their loss to the Seahawks. The competition committee will reveal its proposals in the coming days, and maybe it takes up the Rams’ case, but there shouldn’t be too much rules drama this year. One of the only proposals that did make the docket was the Browns’ idea to allow teams to trade up to five years of draft picks, instead of the current three. “Nothing creates more interest in the NFL than trades,” Rams president Kevin Demoff said on X. “More picks to trade = more trades = more interest & team building options.” The folks in Pittsburgh seem to have their priorities straight. With at least a half million visitors expected to flood downtown next month for the NFL Draft, Pittsburgh Public Schools announced last week that its schools will operate remotely from April 22-24 that week. Yes, that includes Wednesday, the day before the draft begins. School won’t entirely be shut down, as teachers will work remotely and students will be given independent work. But with road closures, parking restrictions, and heightened security, it made sense to close the buildings. The Pennsylvania System of School Assessment exams, originally scheduled to take place during the draft, were also moved to a later date. An ever-evolving entertainment landscape has created portmanteau words like docudrama, infotainment, tragicomedy, and dramedy. After watching the latest episode of the Patriots’ "Forged in Foxborough," perhaps it’s time to introduce a new one: Docu-ganda. It’s a form of media that looks like a documentary, but is written, produced and controlled entirely by the people it is about, with subtle hints of propaganda sprinkled throughout the piece. It is a form of media that has become popular in recent years as teams and athletes invest millions in promoting themselves — think Michael Jordan’s “The Last Dance,” or Netflix series like “Quarterback” and “Full Swing.” The fourth and final episode of “Forged," checking in at nearly 95 minutes, is mostly excellent. It takes the viewer inside Mike Vrabel’s team meetings, the locker room and the sidelines, and provides a gripping account of the team’s run to the Super Bowl. But it’s glaring what it leaves out. There was not one mention of the shoulder injury Drake Maye suffered in the AFC Championship Game, an AC joint injury that required him to take a painkilling injection before the Super Bowl and seemed to affect his play. There was also no mention of the Patriots’ loss to the Bills in Week 15, when they couldn’t hold a 21-0 lead at home. Maye’s injury was a significant moment in the season. It’s one thing to downplay it, but to simply ignore it is trying to erase history. The Forged series is entertaining, but as with most team-produced content, it’s more propaganda than documentary. Former coach Dick Vermeil has attended the Pro Football Hall of Fame ceremony each year since earning induction in 2022, but is considering skipping this year’s event in solidarity with Bill Belichick and Mike Holmgren, who were snubbed by voters. “Right now, I’m embarrassed to be in,” Vermeil told longtime Philadelphia reporter Paul Domowitch. “It really riles me up. Not much pisses me off anymore at my age [89], but that really bothered me. Here I am in the Hall of Fame because of different [voting] mechanics that were used when I got in, and the finest couple of football coaches in the history of the league aren’t in. It makes me think, ‘What the hell am I doing in here if they can’t get in?’ ” … It’s one thing for the Patriots to keep strength coach Deron Mayo, brother of former coach Jerod Mayo, for a year after he was fired. But it was eyebrow-raising last week to see that Deron Mayo will be back for 2026, too. Mayo is certainly good at his job, but his continued employment in New England makes me wonder if it’s about more than that. There were rumblings last year of Jerod threatening the Patriots with legal action after his firing, but he has gone underground and not been heard from in 15 months … The Patriots did officially move on last week from Ben McAdoo, the former Giants head coach who a senior assistant the last two years while he was being paid by the Panthers. McAdoo was an offensive assistant for Jerod Mayo and Alex Van Pelt in 2024, and a defensive assistant last year for Mike Vrabel, bringing an offensive coach’s perspective to the room … Maxx Crosby provided his perspective of the canceled trade on his podcast last week, and while it perhaps was a little strange that the Ravens flew him into D.C. and not Baltimore, and GM Eric DeCosta didn’t meet with him for five hours, I still don’t see evidence of wrongdoing by the Ravens. They had every right to back out of a trade after examining Crosby’s knee, and it’s not like it benefits them — the Ravens are worse off by signing Trey Hendrickson instead of Crosby … In light of the Crosby incident, I asked the Patriots’ Eliot Wolf if it makes him reconsider whether the team should announce signings and trades before they are officially official. “I think it’s good to announce you’ve agreed to terms with somebody just so other teams stop calling them,” Wolf said. “And also, we actually have to do that in order to start Nancy (Meier) with the travel process. That’s kind of the way it’s set up to work now.” Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com.