Can the Guardians adjust their approach against changeups as the pitch experiences a resurgence in MLB?

PHILADELPHIA — The Guardians knew exactly what to expect Friday night at Citizens Bank Park. Stopping it is another matter entirely. Cleveland opened a weekend series against the Phillies facing left-hander Cristopher Sánchez, whose devastating changeup has become one of the toughest pitches in the majors to solve. Sánchez’s changeup was ranked by Statcast as the top pitch in baseball with a run value of 11 entering Friday’s game. That put it ahead of Mets rookie Nolan McLean’s sinker and Brewers flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski’s slider, which both have a run value of 10. Sánchez’s changeup presents a particularly difficult challenge for a Guardians lineup that has struggled badly against offspeed pitching all season. According to data on Baseball Savant, Cleveland entered Friday among the worst teams in baseball against the pitch, posting one of MLB’s lowest run values against changeups this season. Opposing pitchers have increasingly leaned on changeups and sinkers against the Guardians, exploiting a lineup that has often struggled to lay off pitches diving beneath the strike zone. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said flipping the script against changeups starts with discipline — and stubbornness. “You just have to set your sights up,” Vogt said. “You’ve got to be willing to strike out looking at the bottom of the zone.” Vogt said that approach is a lot easier said than done, but when you’re facing a pitcher like Sánchez, who pairs his changeup with a power sinker, it makes for a difficult at-bat. “He’s going to run (the sinker and changeup) underneath the zone,” Vogt said. “It makes it look like it’s going to be really hittable, and it’s not.” Vogt said Cleveland’s hitters must resist the temptation to chase the changeup at the knees and below. “You have to be really stubborn in giving him the bottom third of the zone and wait for the ball to get up,” Vogt said. “The problem is, sometimes it doesn’t do that. But we’ve got to get underneath it. We’ve got to hit the ball in the air.” Devastating changeups such as the one Sánchez throws are becoming more in vogue throughout baseball. For years, major league pitchers tilted toward high-spin four-seam fastballs at the top of the strike zone. But as hitters adjusted to velocity and upper-zone attacks, pitchers have increasingly countered by returning to sinkers and changeups designed to disrupt timing and induce weak contact. “Now hitters have made the adjustment, they can cover the top of the zone,” Vogt said. ”You’re starting to see the sinker come back, you’re starting to see changeup come back. The changeup’s always going to be the great equalizer. It’s a fastball until it’s not.” Vogt recalled his own frustrations trying to hit elite changeups during his playing career, particularly against former Rays and Royals right-hander James Shields. “I sat changeup against James Shields every at-bat I ever faced him,” Vogt said. “He would throw me a changeup and my eyes would tell me it was a fastball and I would swing and I would miss the barrel, roll it over. Unless they throw a bad one, you don’t see it.”