Bill Madden: The teams to watch at MLB’s trade deadline

With the baseball trade deadline just two weeks away, as always there is much anticipation for a gusher of course-changing deals that could ultimately decide which teams go deep into October. Except this year, for a number of reasons, instead of a gusher, the trade deadline may well turn out to be a bummer, with some of the biggest names reportedly on the block not moving after all. The Yankees, more than any other team, are facing a trade deadline dilemma because of the uncertainty of Aaron Judge’s broken rib. Judge reported Friday there had been “some progress and some healing going on,” but until a determination can be made as to when they can expect to get him back they’re kind of in limbo. Here are a few of the reasons clubs are approaching the deadline with extreme caution: With a lockout and a potential salary cap looming, nobody’s taking on big money contracts. (That would be you Francisco Lindor.) Even though there were eight teams — five in the American League and three in the National — within two or fewer games of a wild card at the All-Star break, clubs have to decide whether the wild cards are fool’s gold or they still have the goods to go all the way to the World Series with a couple of key acquisitions. In the case of the five American League teams (we’re excluding the Yankees and Guardians who both have comfortable wild card leads), all of them had under .500 records at the All-Star break. Do they really think they’re World Series legitimates? If it’s the latter, and they still decide to go for it, most of those “key acquisitions” are likely to be rental players and in those cases clubs are then going to be extremely reluctant (as opposed to bold) giving up top prospects. Taking into consideration all these caveats, these are the teams that bear close watching as the deadline approaches: Padres — Despite being one of the most disappointing teams in baseball, Padres’ hyperactive GM A.J. Preller never met a trade deadline he couldn’t exploit to the fullest and in Mason Miller, the most dominant closer in baseball, he has the No. 1 trade asset (if he chooses to move him) who will undoubtedly bring back a mother lode of prospects because of the fact he has three more years of control. Miller is being wasted in San Diego, which Preller reluctantly realizes, leaving him no choice but to see just how much he can get back for him. Yankees — Though a right-handed hitting catcher has remained their primary need for weeks, if Miller is available, they will be first in line because even if they determine a World Series is out of their reach because of Judge’s unavailability, adding the game’s pre-eminent closer sets them up nicely for ’27 and beyond. Despite George Lombard Jr. being deemed untouchable, the Yankees have a plethora of highly rated prospects from which they could put together a satisfactory package for Miller. Red Sox — For most of the first half of the season as they wallowed in last place in the AL East, you’d say they were sure sellers with Sonny Gray, the halfway AL Cy Young leader with 11 wins, and 38-year-old Aroldis Chapman having another dominant season as closer, being prime trade deadline difference makers despite their three-month rental statuses. On June 25, the Red Sox were 32-46, in last place with their two best players, Garrett Crochet (shoulder) and Roman Anthony (torn finger tendon) out indefinitely. But then they went on a 14-2 tear going into the break, putting themselves smack in the middle of the wild card hunt. The Fenway faithful don’t like sell-offs and the guessing now is the Sawx hold onto Gray and Chapman and hope to get Crochet and Anthony back by mid-August to make a run at the Yankees. Tigers — Another team that was injury-riddled and looked out of it, 44-52 as late as June 28, and almost certain to trade Tarik Skubal. But then they went 9-3 leading up to the break after they got Skubal and Gleyber Torres back and vastly improved production from first baseman Spencer Torkelson and third baseman Colt Keith. Word is now they plan to keep Skubal and make a continued run in the weak AL Central and take their chances on re-signing him over the winter. White Sox — The surprise team of baseball, they probably have enough good young players to make the playoffs, but to go deep in October they’re going to need at least one more starting pitcher and, most importantly a closer. GM Chris Getz, who is already the hands-down executive of the year, has said he’ll be in the market for both but insisted he won’t overpay, especially for a rental player. However, if Preller decides to move Miller, Getz has the prospect capital to put together as good a package as anyone.