NHL 2024-25 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings

Starting at the player level, we create a projected Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating for each player — a linear weight model that combines each player’s production and play-driving ability using various box score and on-ice metrics. That projection is based on the player’s performance in each metric over the last three seasons (five for goalies), weighted for recency where more recent seasons carry more significance and regressed to the mean. That rating is then adjusted for the contextual usage of who they play with and against on average. From there, an Offensive and Defensive Rating is created for each team based on the combined ratings from the players on their roster. Those ratings create an estimate of how many goals each team is expected to score and allow in a game against an average opponent at a neutral site. We then assign a probability of how likely a team is to win a given game by factoring for opponent strength, venue and rest. Taking into account each team’s current record, expected health and remaining schedule, we use these game-by-game projections to simulate the rest of the season (including the playoffs) 50,000 times using the Monte Carlo method.