Is The 2025 Outlook For The Chicago White Sox A Real Improvement?

It’s hard to imagine things being much worse for the Chicago White Sox in the coming year than they were in 2024. But after the record-setting 41-121 season they just had, projections for next season aren’t a lot better. They might not reset the record for worst seasons in the modern era (since 1901), but don’t expect a big climb up the standings. Oddsmakers have the White Sox winning around 49 games in 2025, and based on how their offseason has gone thus far, there isn’t a lot of reason to take the over on that projected win total. There have been a few changes to the offseason this winter, but those don’t paint a clear picture of what to expect next year. They took at step forward in some places but a step back in others. And where they need existing players to improve, there are question marks. General Manager Chris Getz settled the question early in the offseason of who will manage the White Sox after they fired Pedro Grifol back in early August and tapped Grady Sizemore to serve as the interim replacement for the remainder of the season. Will Venable was hired at the end of October, the second consecutive rookie manager put at the helm of the White Sox. Venable has at least plenty of coaching experience, and he’s worked with World Series-winning managers Joe Maddon, Alex Cora, and Bruce Bochy. Coming to the White Sox, Venable knows the challenge of taking over a 121-loss team. “I don’t think there’s one managerial job that is easy,” Venable told reporters at his introductory press conference. “All these jobs come with their unique challenges and I’m excited about the challenges that are presented here with this group. I’ve been on teams that have had to work hard to overachieve, and that’s a mindset and mentality that I’m comfortable with. I’ve seen that work at even the highest levels.” The challenge of navigating the White Sox through their 2025 season got even greater when star-on-the-rise pitcher Garrett Crochet was traded to the Boston Red Sox during the winter meetings in the second week of December. The win/loss projections that had the White Sox winning 49 games came out about a week after that trade, and Chicago has done little in the time since to improve. The trade helped further stock the farm system, but the current major league squad is going to have a tough time winning at least 50 games. One reason for that is, no matter how good or bad a roster the time might have, the American League Central is a very tough division. The White Sox were the only team without a winning record, and one of just two (with the Minnesota Twins) who didn’t make the playoffs. And at this point, all four of the other teams in the division are predicted to post winning records in 2025. That alone doesn’t make for an easy path next year. But the current squad — with a projected $74 million payroll — expected to take the field in ‘25 is going to have to have serious bounceback seasons from a few players if things are going to improve. The team’s top two leaders in fWAR last season — Paul DeJong and Nicky Lopez — are both gone. DeJong was traded to the Kansas City Royals at the July deadline, and Lopez elected free agency in November. Behind them, Luis Robert, Jr. was worth half a win above replacement in 2024, by far the worst season of his career. He was much better in 2023, when he posted a 4.9 fWAR season with 38 home runs and 36 doubles, but if last season was a sign of decline, the White Sox are in trouble. Robert’s strikeout rate ballooned to over 33% and his power dropped significantly, going from a .542 slugging percentage in ‘23 to just .379 this year, and without any real lineup protection next year, it’s unlikely that Robert’s numbers improve much. However, if there is a path to more wins for the White Sox next season, it might not come from the offense. There is a chance the club has better pitching in 2025, even without Crochet. They still have a bevy of promising young starters, and their continued development could yield a few more wins next year. Every member of their projected starting rotation is under 30 years old, and they are headlined by 24-year-old Drew Thorpe, who was one of the centerpieces of the trade that sent Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres in March. Thorpe showed flashes of promise in his nine starts last season, before bone spurs in his throwing elbow required surgery in September. Thorpe is expected to be fully healthy for spring training. Behind Thorpe, Jonathan Cannon and Sean Burke are both under 25 and have bright futures. And veteran Bryse Wilson, signed to a one-year $1.05 million deal earlier this month, comes with seven years of major league experience, most recently with the National League Central division champion Milwaukee Brewers. These are still major question marks, however. Even with all the promise that Thorpe, Cannon, and Burke have, they are still young and rather inexperienced pitchers, so they are bound to have growing pains in the coming season. On the other side of the ball, if Robert, Jr. is the team’s best hope on offense, they are going to struggle to score runs. In all, the Chicago White Sox lost 121 games this year because nearly everything that could have gone wrong for them did go wrong. That’s unlikely to happen again, but even with slightly better luck, they don’t have a great chance of winning many more games than they did in 2024. The White Sox have made progress toward stocking their farm system further, but the major league team is still at least a few years away from being very good, and with the main issue with the ballclub being at the top of the organization, there isn’t much promise for serious improvement.